SECONDARY INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY
Where 500 bn — 1.5 tn ₽ comes from
The range for Russia's idle industrial stock market that we use across the platform's materials. Below is how it was derived — and where its limits are.
HONEST NOTE
This is RESTOK.PRO's own estimate based on the team's industry experience — not an independent study. We publish the premises and the method so the estimate can be checked and challenged.
The share of idle stock in industrial inventories
Every industrial enterprise holds inventory for its production programme and maintenance. Part of what is purchased is never consumed within the planning horizon: projects close, equipment is decommissioned, item numbers get duplicated across sites. These positions settle in warehouses as idle stock.
The premise: the share of such stock in Russia's total industrial inventories consistently measures in single to double-digit percent. This is supported both by the external benchmarks below and by the stock audits and dead-stock committees the platform team took part in.
What open sources say
The benchmarks the extrapolation relies on. Direct links to the publications are added to this section as they are verified.
3–7%
of industrial purchases end up unused
Bidzaar — interview with Sekrety Firmy (T-Bank), July 2026
up to 25–30%
of warehouse inventory turns into dead stock over time
sostav.ru, published 12.09.2025
6.1 bn ₽
of surplus sold by a single company (RUSAL) in 2022
up-pro.ru, RUSAL case study
Bottom-up extrapolation
The base is the total material inventories of Russia's industrial sectors per official statistics. The idle-stock share from the benchmark range is applied to that base: the conservative bound yields a lower estimate of roughly 500 bn ₽, the upper one — up to 1.5 tn ₽.
The range is deliberately wide: it reflects how the dead-stock share varies between industries and how uneven warehouse accounting is. We do not publish a point figure inside the range — any single number would look more precise than the data allows.
What this estimate does not claim
- It estimates frozen book value, not the annual turnover of the secondary market.
- The sellable (liquid) share of idle stock is noticeably smaller than the gross volume: some positions have lost applicability or sell at a deep discount.
- The estimate does not aggregate data of specific companies and does not rely on non-public reporting.
- The range is revised as actual deal data accumulates on the platform.